Understanding the wars of the 21st century requires more than examining a conflict at the moment it erupts. Wars rarely arise from a single cause. They are usually the result of overlapping economic interests, territorial disputes, ideologies, national identities, religious divisions, competition over resources, power vacuums, foreign intervention and diplomatic failures.
The history of the 20th century and the first decades of the 21st century demonstrates this dynamic particularly clearly. From the two World Wars to the Cold War, from the creation of Israel to the Arab-Israeli wars, from the Iranian Revolution to the invasion of Iraq, from the Syrian civil war to the destabilization of Libya, and finally to the contemporary competition across the wider Mediterranean, the international system has been characterized by a continuous struggle for control over strategic spaces.
The Middle East represents perhaps the clearest example of this overlapping of factors. The dissolution of the Ottoman Empire, the creation of new states, European colonialism, the Palestinian question, competition among regional powers, the role of the United States and Russia, the strategic importance of the Persian Gulf and, more recently, the rivalry involving Iran, Israel, Turkey and several Arab powers have produced an exceptionally complex geopolitical system.
Yet there is another region that Europe—and Italy in particular—cannot consider separately: North Africa.
Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco and Egypt form a geopolitical belt directly connected to Italian security. These countries must also be considered together with the Sahel, because terrorism, illicit trafficking, political instability, migration pressure, climate change, competition over resources and foreign intervention have increasingly blurred the distinction between the Mediterranean, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa.
Recent strategic analyses increasingly describe the Mediterranean, North Africa and the Sahel as a single interconnected strategic system.
This raises a question that goes beyond simply asking why wars begin:
Can Italy contribute effectively to preventing conflicts and creating the conditions for greater stability across the Mediterranean and North Africa?
The answer is potentially yes—but only if Rome succeeds in transforming its geographical position from a source of vulnerability into a genuine geopolitical asset.
1. Why Do Wars Begin?
History since 1900 demonstrates that there is no single universal cause of war.
Instead, several recurring categories can be identified.
1.1 Territory
Control of territory remains one of the oldest causes of conflict.
Disputed borders, occupied territories, access to the sea, control of strategic corridors and competing national claims can all develop into armed conflicts.
Territory also has a value that goes far beyond geography.
It can mean:
- access to resources;
- strategic depth;
- control of trade routes;
- national prestige;
- military security;
- control of populations;
- access to ports and infrastructure.
1.2 Natural Resources
Oil and gas have played a fundamental role in the geopolitics of the 20th and 21st centuries.
However, reducing wars simply to the struggle for oil would be misleading.
Energy resources become strategically decisive when combined with other factors: geographical position, infrastructure, maritime routes, regional rivalries and the interests of external powers.
The Middle East is the clearest historical example.
The Persian Gulf is not merely an oil-rich region. It is also a crucial gateway for the global economy.
2. The First World War: Nationalism, Alliances and Imperial Competition
The First World War represents one of the first major geopolitical laboratories of the 20th century.
Its causes included:
- nationalism;
- imperial rivalry;
- militarization;
- economic competition;
- alliance systems;
- crises in the Balkans;
- the weakening of multinational empires.
The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo in 1914 was the trigger, not the sole cause.
This distinction is essential.
An international system already characterized by deep tensions can transform a local incident into a general war.
It is one of the most important lessons contemporary geopolitics should remember.
3. The Collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the Creation of the Modern Middle East
The First World War profoundly transformed the Middle East.
The defeat of the Ottoman Empire brought an end to an imperial structure that had governed much of the region for centuries.
After the war, European powers played a decisive role in reorganizing the political landscape.
Britain and France became particularly influential.
New states and new borders emerged.
This process is fundamental to understanding modern Middle Eastern geopolitics.
However, it would be historically simplistic to claim that all contemporary Middle Eastern problems originated exclusively from borders drawn by European powers.
Middle Eastern societies already contained political, religious, ethnic and tribal divisions.
The problem was the interaction between those existing divisions and the new state structures established or encouraged by external powers.
4. The Second World War
The Second World War further demonstrates how wars can emerge from a prolonged accumulation of crises.
Among the main factors were:
- German revisionism;
- radical nationalism;
- the rise of Nazism;
- the economic and political consequences of the Great Depression;
- German dissatisfaction with the Versailles system;
- Japanese expansionism;
- Italian aggression;
- the weakness of collective security;
- appeasement policies.
The invasion of Poland in 1939 transformed the European crisis into a world war.
Once again, the central lesson is clear:
war rarely begins on the day it is formally declared.
It often develops during the years in which political institutions fail to resolve disputes.
5. The Cold War: When Wars Become Indirect
After 1945, the international system entered a new phase.
The United States and the Soviet Union avoided a direct large-scale military confrontation, but transformed numerous local conflicts into arenas of global competition.
Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America were all affected by the confrontation between the two blocs.
This introduces another essential geopolitical concept:
a local war can be driven by global interests.
The conflict no longer involves only the actors physically present on the battlefield.
External actors can provide:
- financing;
- weapons;
- intelligence;
- training;
- propaganda;
- diplomatic support;
- sanctions;
- political backing.
This model remains relevant in the 21st century.
6. The Creation of Israel and the Arab-Israeli Conflict
The Middle East is the region where many of the main categories of geopolitics overlap.
The creation of the State of Israel in 1948 profoundly transformed regional power relations.
The question of Israel’s security became intertwined with the Palestinian question.
Since then, the conflict has passed through numerous stages:
- the 1948 war;
- the Suez Crisis;
- the Six-Day War;
- the Yom Kippur War;
- conflicts in Lebanon;
- the First and Second Intifadas;
- successive wars and military operations in Gaza;
- increasing regional competition.
The conflict cannot be understood exclusively as a religious war.
It contains:
- territorial elements;
- national aspirations;
- identity politics;
- military considerations;
- demographic factors;
- diplomatic interests;
- strategic calculations.
Religion is an important factor, but it does not provide the entire explanation.
7. Oil and Power: The Persian Gulf
The strategic importance of oil profoundly changed international politics.
The Gulf states acquired enormous economic and strategic importance.
At the same time, major powers developed a growing interest in securing energy routes.
This contributed to transforming the Middle East into one of the principal arenas of international competition.
However, energy geopolitics is no longer limited to oil.
The 21st century increasingly revolves around:
- natural gas;
- electricity infrastructure;
- submarine cables;
- ports;
- LNG terminals;
- pipelines;
- renewable energy;
- critical minerals.
The geopolitical question has therefore evolved from:
Who controls the oil?
to:
Who controls the infrastructure through which energy reaches global markets?
8. The Iranian Revolution and a New Regional Balance
The Iranian Revolution of 1979 represented another major turning point.
Iran gradually became one of the principal actors in the regional balance of power.
The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Israel’s strategic position, Turkey’s regional ambitions and the role of the United States contributed to the creation of a highly complex Middle Eastern system.
Contemporary Middle Eastern geopolitics therefore cannot simply be reduced to an Israel-versus-Arab-world confrontation.
It is a multipolar regional system.
9. The Iran-Iraq War
The Iran-Iraq War of 1980–1988 demonstrated how regional competition can develop into catastrophic conflict.
The war resulted from the interaction of:
- territorial disputes;
- fear of revolutionary Iran;
- regional competition;
- external intervention;
- control of resources;
- the balance of power in the Gulf.
Again, no single explanation is sufficient.
10. The Gulf War and the Transformation of the International System
In 1990, Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait created a new international crisis.
A broad international coalition led by the United States intervened to restore Kuwait’s territorial sovereignty.
The Gulf War was one of the moments when American power appeared overwhelmingly dominant.
Yet military victory did not resolve the structural contradictions of the region.
11. 9/11 and the Transformation of International Security
The attacks of September 11, 2001 radically changed perceptions of international security.
International terrorism became a central strategic priority for the United States and Europe.
The American response resulted in the war in Afghanistan and, subsequently, the invasion of Iraq.
The 2003 Iraq War remains a crucial event for understanding the contemporary Middle East.
The fall of Saddam Hussein removed an authoritarian regime, but the destabilization of Iraqi institutions contributed to a new political and security environment.
In subsequent years, this power vacuum created conditions that facilitated the rise of extremist organizations.
The strategic lesson is crucial:
removing a regime does not automatically create a functioning political order.
12. The Arab Spring
The events of 2011 represented another turning point.
The Arab Spring was driven by a combination of:
- unemployment;
- authoritarianism;
- corruption;
- rising prices;
- democratic aspirations;
- lack of economic opportunities;
- social frustration;
- demands from younger generations.
In some countries the transition was relatively peaceful.
In others, it evolved into civil war.
Syria and Libya are the most important examples.
13. The Syrian War
The Syrian conflict demonstrates how a domestic crisis can rapidly become an international war.
The Syrian battlefield involved:
- the Syrian government;
- opposition groups;
- jihadist organizations;
- Russia;
- Iran;
- Turkey;
- the United States;
- Israel;
- several regional actors.
Syria consequently became an example of a complex proxy conflict in which different international and regional powers supported different actors.
14. Libya: The Conflict Most Relevant to Italian Security
For Italy, however, Libya is arguably the most strategically important case.
The fall of Muammar Gaddafi’s regime in 2011 was not followed by the creation of a sufficiently strong and broadly accepted central authority.
The result was prolonged political and military fragmentation.
Libya simultaneously presents:
- a strategic Mediterranean position;
- significant energy resources;
- geographical proximity to Italy;
- institutional weakness;
- armed militias;
- illicit trafficking;
- migration pressure;
- international competition;
- involvement by regional powers.
For Rome, Libya is therefore not a distant foreign-policy issue.
It is a national-security issue.
15. The Mediterranean Is No Longer Simply a Geographic Border
Contemporary geopolitics has transformed the Mediterranean into a single strategic space.
Middle Eastern crises affect the Mediterranean.
North African instability affects Europe.
Instability in the Sahel affects North Africa.
Energy crises affect European economies.
Migration affects European politics.
Organized crime and trafficking networks exploit the same routes.
The Mediterranean must therefore be understood as a network.
Not as a line.
16. The Sahel: A Problem Europe Can No Longer Ignore
The Sahel has become one of the principal areas of instability in contemporary Africa.
The region faces:
- jihadist terrorism;
- coups and political instability;
- weak institutions;
- poverty;
- climate change;
- local conflicts;
- transnational trafficking;
- international competition.
Instability can also spread across borders.
The growing interconnection between the Sahel, North Africa and the Mediterranean means that European security cannot be separated from African stability.
17. Why Italy Is Particularly Exposed
Italy occupies a unique geographical position.
It is one of the European countries closest to North Africa.
Sicily is a natural strategic platform in the central Mediterranean.
This creates both opportunities and vulnerabilities.
Key issues include:
Energy Security
Italy has developed important energy relationships with Mediterranean and North African countries.
Migration
Italy’s geographical position makes it one of the principal entry points into the European Union.
Terrorism
Instability in North Africa and the Sahel can create environments favorable to extremist organizations.
Organized Crime
Human trafficking, drug trafficking, arms trafficking and other forms of organized crime can exploit the same structural weaknesses.
Maritime Security
Ports, commercial shipping routes, energy infrastructure and submarine cables have become strategic assets.
Foreign Competition
Russia, China, Turkey, the United States and regional powers are seeking to expand their influence across Africa and the Mediterranean.
18. The Mattei Plan and Italy’s Potential Strategy
Italy has attempted to develop a new approach through the Mattei Plan for Africa.
Its strategic logic is particularly significant because it attempts to move beyond an exclusively emergency-based approach.
Africa should not be viewed solely through the lens of migration.
It should increasingly be considered as:
- an economic partner;
- an energy partner;
- an industrial partner;
- a technological partner;
- a security partner;
- a political partner.
The fundamental objective should be to create relationships in which African countries themselves have a concrete interest in stability and development.
19. The Limits of a Migration-Only Approach
One of the most dangerous strategic mistakes would be to view North Africa exclusively through the migration issue.
Migration is often a symptom.
It is not necessarily the underlying cause.
Where a country suffers from:
- unemployment;
- political instability;
- conflict;
- poverty;
- climate pressures;
- inadequate public services;
- organized crime;
migration pressure can increase.
Controlling borders without addressing underlying structural conditions therefore addresses only part of the problem.
A comprehensive Mediterranean policy must combine border management with development, energy cooperation, economic investment, security cooperation and institutional strengthening.
20. What Could Italy Actually Do?
The answer should not be primarily military.
Italy does not possess the global economic or military mass of the United States and cannot independently reshape the regional order.
But Italy possesses another form of power:
the power to connect.
Rome can potentially act as a bridge between Europe, North Africa and the Middle East.
21. An Italian Mediterranean Diplomacy
Italy could promote a permanent Mediterranean diplomatic platform.
Not merely occasional conferences, but a stable mechanism involving:
- Italy;
- France;
- Spain;
- Greece;
- Malta;
- Egypt;
- Libya;
- Tunisia;
- Algeria;
- Morocco;
- Gulf states;
- Turkey;
- European institutions.
The objective would be the creation of a permanent consultation and crisis-prevention mechanism.
22. Libya as the First Test
A credible Italian strategy should begin with Libya.
Not necessarily by attempting to impose an external political solution.
Rather by supporting:
- institutional unification;
- border security;
- economic integration;
- energy governance;
- stronger institutions;
- judicial cooperation;
- organized-crime prevention;
- infrastructure development;
- security-sector training;
- gradual reduction of militia dependence.
Italy could combine diplomacy, economic cooperation, intelligence, training and European instruments.
23. Energy as an Instrument of Peace
Energy could become one of the most important tools of Italian diplomacy.
Gas, electricity and renewable energy could transform relations between Europe and North Africa.
A potential model would be:
African resources → Italian and European investment → infrastructure → local production → employment → exports → economic growth → greater stability.
The objective should not simply be to import African energy.
It should be to create economic value inside African countries.
24. The New Geopolitics of Electricity
Over the coming decades, the Mediterranean could become one of the world’s major laboratories for renewable energy.
North Africa possesses enormous solar and wind potential.
Europe possesses:
- capital;
- technology;
- energy demand;
- infrastructure;
- markets.
Italy could find itself at the center of this relationship.
25. Italy as a European Energy Hub
Italy’s geographical position allows it to imagine a role in which it is not simply an energy consumer.
Italy could become:
an energy, industrial and logistics hub for the Mediterranean.
Such a transformation would have major geopolitical consequences.
More infrastructure means:
- greater interdependence;
- more investment;
- stronger incentives for stability;
- greater Italian diplomatic leverage.
Energy security can therefore become an instrument of foreign policy.
26. The Role of Intelligence
Conflict prevention cannot depend exclusively on traditional diplomacy.
It requires predictive capacity.
Intelligence should monitor:
- political instability;
- radicalization;
- militia movements;
- trafficking;
- terrorism;
- disinformation;
- energy security;
- migration;
- cyber threats;
- critical infrastructure;
- financial flows;
- foreign interference.
The objective should be to anticipate crises.
Not simply react after they have already begun.
27. Cybersecurity in the Mediterranean
Modern warfare does not necessarily require tanks.
An attack against:
- an electricity grid;
- a port;
- an airport;
- a bank;
- a healthcare system;
- an energy facility;
- a submarine cable;
can generate consequences comparable to those of a traditional military operation.
The Mediterranean is particularly vulnerable because it contains infrastructure essential to European communications and energy supplies.
Future Mediterranean cooperation will therefore also have to include cybersecurity.
28. Italy Cannot Act Alone
This is one of the fundamental conditions.
Italy can play a leading role, but it cannot unilaterally solve North Africa’s problems.
Mediterranean security involves:
- the European Union;
- NATO;
- the United Nations;
- North African states;
- Gulf states;
- Turkey;
- the United States.
Italy’s strategy should therefore be:
national in the definition of interests, European in economic capacity, and multilateral in political legitimacy.
29. Relations with France and Spain
France, Spain and Italy share significant Mediterranean interests.
But those interests are not always identical.
France has a particularly strong historical and strategic relationship with Francophone Africa and the Sahel.
Spain has a privileged geographical relationship with the Maghreb and the Atlantic.
Italy possesses a particularly important position in the central Mediterranean and strong interests in Libya and Egypt.
Structured cooperation among the three countries could significantly increase the influence of Southern Europe within the European Union.
30. Italy and NATO: The Southern Flank
NATO also considers the Mediterranean and the Middle East integral to its security environment.
For Italy, this reinforces a fundamental strategic position:
European security cannot be understood solely by looking eastward.
There is also a southern flank.
For Italy, this flank is geographically immediate.
31. The Middle East and the Risk of Mediterranean Spillover
Major Middle Eastern crises can produce consequences throughout Europe.
Potential effects include:
- higher energy prices;
- disruption of commercial routes;
- migration crises;
- radicalization;
- terrorism;
- cyberattacks;
- political polarization;
- financial instability;
- increased defense spending.
This means that Mediterranean security should not be separated from Middle Eastern diplomacy.
32. Italy’s Strategic Opportunity: Turning the Periphery into the Center
The fundamental Italian opportunity lies in changing the perspective.
For too long, the Mediterranean has been treated as Europe’s periphery.
From an Italian perspective, the opposite should be true.
The Mediterranean is the geographical center connecting:
Europe – Africa – the Middle East – the Atlantic – the Indo-Mediterranean region.
Italy occupies an extraordinary position within this system.
33. A Possible Italian Mediterranean Plan
Italy could develop a national strategy based on ten pillars.
1. Diplomacy
Creation of a permanent Italy-Mediterranean forum.
2. Energy
Integration of North African and European energy networks.
3. Infrastructure
Ports, railways, electricity interconnections and digital cables.
4. Security
Cooperation against terrorism and organized crime.
5. Intelligence
Structured intelligence-sharing and predictive analysis.
6. Migration
Management of migration routes through cooperation with countries of origin and transit.
7. Economy
Italian investment in African production chains.
8. Education
Universities, vocational training and public-administration development.
9. Technology
Cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, telecommunications and energy technologies.
10. Mediation
Strengthening Italy’s diplomatic role in regional negotiations.
34. The Real Prevention of War
Prevention does not simply mean stopping people from shooting.
It means progressively reducing the incentives for war.
A country with:
- functioning institutions;
- employment;
- infrastructure;
- energy security;
- trade;
- market access;
- education;
- international cooperation;
has more instruments available to manage crises without violence.
Modern geopolitics should therefore also be understood as a politics of resilience.
35. The Limits of Military Power
Military force remains indispensable in certain circumstances.
But it cannot by itself solve:
- unemployment;
- corruption;
- institutional weakness;
- tribal competition;
- identity conflicts;
- poverty;
- lack of public services;
- radicalization.
Military security must therefore be accompanied by economic, energy, food, digital and institutional security.
36. The Great Lesson of the 20th Century
Looking at more than a century of wars reveals a fundamental principle.
Wars become more likely when several factors converge:
instability + strategic interests + power vacuum + international competition + diplomatic failure.
If one of these elements is absent, war may still occur, but its probability can be reduced.
When all of them converge, the risk rises dramatically.
This framework can be applied to the First World War, the Second World War, the Cold War, the Middle East, Syria and Libya.
37. The Challenge of the 21st Century
The 21st century differs from the 20th century in one crucial respect.
There is no longer a simple bipolar confrontation.
The world has become multipolar.
The United States remains a global power.
China has dramatically increased its economic and strategic influence.
Russia maintains significant military capabilities and international influence.
Turkey has expanded its regional projection.
Iran remains a fundamental Middle Eastern actor.
The Gulf monarchies have acquired increasing strategic autonomy.
India is expanding its global influence.
Africa is becoming progressively more important.
This makes the international system more difficult to predict.
38. The Position Italy Could Adopt
Italy does not necessarily need to aspire to become a global military superpower.
It could instead build a new form of Mediterranean power.
A power based on:
- diplomacy;
- energy;
- trade;
- infrastructure;
- intelligence;
- technology;
- culture;
- cooperation;
- military capabilities;
- European and Atlantic integration.
Such a form of power would be much more consistent with Italy’s geography and economic capabilities.
39. Conclusion
The history of wars from 1900 to the present demonstrates that conflicts are rarely explained by a single cause.
Nationalism can be decisive.
Religion can become a mobilizing force.
Resources can generate competition.
Territory can represent an existential issue.
Great powers can fuel local conflicts.
Poverty can contribute to instability.
Weak states can create power vacuums.
But war becomes particularly likely when these factors overlap and diplomacy fails to contain them.
The Middle East is the clearest example of this dynamic.
North Africa, meanwhile, is the region in which Italy has the greatest opportunity to exercise meaningful influence.
Geographical proximity should not be viewed merely as a vulnerability.
It can become a strategic advantage.
Italy possesses a unique combination of assets: geographical position, diplomatic experience, energy relationships, industrial capacity, membership in the European Union and NATO, and a natural strategic projection toward the Mediterranean.
The objective should not be to “solve” North African crises unilaterally.
That would be unrealistic.
The objective should be more ambitious, but also more achievable:
to become Europe’s principal facilitator of Mediterranean stability.
This means contributing to Libya’s stabilization, strengthening relations with Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt and Morocco, developing energy partnerships, investing in African infrastructure, combating terrorism and organized crime, improving migration management, expanding technological cooperation and establishing permanent diplomatic mechanisms.
The strategic opportunity is therefore to transform the Mediterranean from a frontier of crises into a space of cooperation.
This may be the real geopolitical role Italy can play in the 21st century.
Not a power seeking to dominate the Mediterranean.
But a power capable of connecting Europe, Africa and the Middle East and transforming its geographical position into diplomatic, economic and strategic influence.
That may ultimately be Italy’s most realistic geopolitical ambition for the decades ahead.
Avv. Davide Guarnera
Studio Legale Guarnera – Palermo
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